Gabriela Guimarães Nobre wins the EGU 2018 Outstanding Student Poster and PICO (OSPP) Award

She received the award for her PICO entitled ‘Forecasting and coping with maize yield anomalies through cash transfers in Kenya’.

10/18/2018 | 4:22 PM

In relation with its General Assemblies, the European Geosciences Union (EGU) presents a number of special awards, such as the Outstanding Student Poster and PICO (OSPP) Awards, to further improve the overall quality of poster and PICO presentations. Most importantly, these awards aim to develop early career researchers' excitement to present their work in the form of a poster and/or PICO.

The presented PICO evaluates the potential cost-effectiveness of cash transfer responses, comparing the relative costs of cash transfers before (ex-ante) and after (ex-post) drought events in five districts in Kenya. For that, a forecast model using Fast-and Frugal Trees was developed that unravels early warning relationships between climate variability, vegetation coverage, and maize yields at multiple lead times. Results indicate that the developed models predict the majority of the low maize yield events in all districts, even six months before harvesting. Overall, this study shows show that cash transfers ex-ante can often be more cost-effective than ex-post.