Dr. F. Estrada Porrua

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+31 20 59 89555
faculteit der aard- en levenswetenschappen ( dep. environmental economics )
PhD researcher


Francisco Estrada is a PhD researcher at the Department of Environmental Economics, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam under the supervision of Prof. Richard Tol. He currently works in the Climate Change research group at the Center for Atmospheric Sciences of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). His PhD work centers on developing a new global Stochastic Integrated Assessment Model. He obtained a MSc. on Risk Management from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He was a contributing author for the Working Group II of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report and he has been selected as expert reviewer for the Working Group II contribution for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. He has participated and coordinated research projects on the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in agriculture, the economics of climate change and also on the generation of regional climate change scenarios.


Time-series econometrics, integrated assessment modeling, climate change scenarios and uncertainty.

Academic training

2005-2010MSc. Risk Manegement, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), México.
1994-1999B. Economics, Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico.

Professional employment history

2007-presentAcademic Technician, Center for Atmospheric Sciences, UNAM
2002-2010Technical Secretary, Center for Atmospheric Sciences, UNAM
2000-2002Research Assistant, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)

Recent projects

•       Generation of climate change scenarios for 17 protected natural areas in Mexico. 2011. Centro Mario Molina. PI: Dr. Benjamín Martínez.

•       The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico City). CVCC-ICYTDF. 2010. PI: Francisco Estrada.

•       Virtual Center for Climate Change Studies in Mexico City. Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología del Distrito Federal. 2010.. PI: Dr. Carlos Gay

•       UNAM's Climate Change Research Programme. 2010. Participation as advisor on Economics, statistical modelling and climate change scenarios generation. P.I.: Dr. Carlos Gay

•       Generation of methods of the integrated assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of climate variability and change in different productive sectors in Mexico. CONACYT-SEMARNAT. 2010. PI: Dr. Carlos Gay.

•       Precipitation patterns in the Valley of Mexico, their observed evolution and projections. CVCC-ICyTDF. 2010. P.I.: Dr. Benjamin Martínez.

•       Generation of climate change scenarios: selection and justification of emissions scenarios. The Economics of Climate Change in Central America. UN-ECLAC/DFID. 2009. P.I.: Francisco Estrada.

•       Factibility analysis for the study of the costs of climate change in Central America UN- ECLAC /DFID. 2008. P.I.: Francisco Estrada.

•       Selection of models for assessing the potential impacts and costs of climate change in Central America for the following sectors: agriculture, water resources and health. UN-ECLAC/DFID. 2008. P.I.: Francisco Estrada.


•       2nd place in the IMEF-ERNST & YOUNG Financial Research Award 2011. Title of work: Use of financial derivatives for climate change risk management.

•       1st place in the ITAM-Energía dn Red Energy and Development Award for the best master thesis.

Selected publications

Estrada, F., Perron, P. & Martínez, B. (2012). Statistical evidence about human influence on the climate system. Working paper, Department of Economics, Boston University. Available at: http://people.bu.edu/perron/workingpapers.html

Estrada, F. & Perron, P. (2012). Breaks, trends and the attribution of climate change: a time-series analysis. Working paper, Department of Economics, Boston University. Available at: http://people.bu.edu/perron/workingpapers.html

Estrada, F., Perron, P., Gay, C. & Martínez, B. (2012). A time series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC's AR4. Submitted to Climatic Change. Available at: http://people.bu.edu/perron/workingpapers.html

Estrada, F., Tol, R.S.J. & Gay-Garcia, C. (2011). A critique of the economics of climate change in Mexico. ESRI working paper. Available at: http://www.esri.ie/publications/search_for_a_working_pape/search_results/view/index.xml?id=3345

Estrada, F., Gay, C. & Conde, C. (2011). A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico. Climatic Change DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0353-9.

Estrada, F., Martínez-López, B., Conde, C. & Gay-García, C. (2011). The new National Climate Change Documents of Mexico: What do the regional climate change scenarios represent? Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0100-2.

Conde, C., Estrada, F., Martínez, B., Sánchez, O. & Gay, C. (2011). Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico. Atmosfera, 24(1), 125-140.

Estrada, F., Gay, C. & Sánchez, A. (2010). Reply to “Does temperature contain a stochastic trend? Evaluating conflicting results by Kaufmann et al”. Climatic Change, 101(3-4), 407-414, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9928-0.

Gay, C. & Estrada, F. (2010). Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion. Climatic Change, 99(1-2), 27-46, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9681-4.

Bravo, J.L., Azpra-Romero, E., Zarraluqui-Such, V., Gay, C. & Estrada, F. (2010). Significance tests for the relationship between “El Niño” phenomenon and precipitation in Mexico. Geofísica Internacional, 49(4), 245-261.

Gay, C., Estrada, F. & Martínez, B. (2010). Cambio Climático y Estadística Oficial. Realidad, Datos y Espacio. Revista Internacional de Estadística y Geografía. Año 1, número 1, noviembre 2010.

Gay, C. & Estrada, F. (2010). Cambio de las temperaturas global y hemisféricas. Colaboración por invitación en Investigación y Ciencia (Spanish edition of Scientific American). Investigación y Ciencia, 405, 84-89.

Gay, C., Estrada, F. & Sánchez, A. (2009). Global and hemispheric temperatures revisited. Climatic Change, 94(3-4), 333-349.

Estrada, F., Martínez-Arroyo. A., Fernández-Eguiarte. A., Luyando. E. & Gay. C. (2009). Defining climate zones in Mexico City using multivariate analysis. Atmosfera, 22(2),175-193.

Gay, C., Estrada, F. & Conde, C. (2007). Some implications of time series analysis for describing climatologic conditions and for forecasting. An illustrative case: Veracruz, México. Atmósfera, 20(2), 147-170.

Gay, C., Estrada, F., Conde, C., Eakin, H. & Villers, L. (2006). Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: a case study of coffee production in Veracruz, México. Climatic Change, 79(3-4), 259-288.

Bravo, J.L., Gay, C., Conde, C. & Estrada, F. (2006). Probabilistic description of rains and ENSO phenomenon in a coffee farms area in Veracruz, México. Atmósfera, 19, 49-74.

Conde, C., Vinocur, M., Gay, C., Seiler, R., Estrada, F. (2006). Climatic threat spaces as a tool to assess current and future climate risks: case studies in Mexico and Argentina. AIACC Working Paper No. 30.-56 p. Available at: www.aiaccproject.org.


Estrada, F. & Martínez, B. (2011). Economía del Cambio Climático en la Ciudad de México. Centro Virtual de Cambio Climático de la Ciudad de México. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. 88 pp. ISBN: 978-607-02-2112-5.

Conde, C., Vinocur, M., Gay, C., Seiler, R., Estrada, F. (2008). Climatic threat spaces in Mexico and Argentina (chapter 14). In Leary, N., Conde, C., Kulkarni, J., Nyong, A. & Pulhin, J. (Eds), Climate change and vulnerability (pp. 279-306). Earthscan, TWAS, START.

Contributing Author in: Magrin, G., Gay, García, C., Cruz Choque, D., Giménez, J.C., Moreno, A.R., Nagy, G.J., Nobre, C. & Villamizar, A. (2007). Latin America. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. & Hanson, C.E. (Eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 581-615.

Ancillary activities

Last changes Ancillary activities: Amsterdam 27 januari 2017