Dr P.J. Ward



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+31 20 59 86149
c-548
philip.ward@vu.nl
faculteit der aard- en levenswetenschappen ( dep. water & climate risk )
Researcher

Summary

Dr. Philip Ward is Deputy Head of the Department of Water and Climate Risk at the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM). He is an Assistant Professor, and leads his own research program on Global Water and Climate Risk. Since 2012 he has been a guest researcher at Deltares, and in 2013-2014 he was a visiting scientist at Columbia University in New York.

His current research focuses on flood and drought risk assessment at the global and continental scale. In the last few years, Philip has developed models to assess these risks today and in the future, as well as methods to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of flood risk reduction strategies. His research fuses high-level scientific impact with key societal questions, and searches for solutions to global environmental challenges. He has authored more than 45 papers in international peer-reviewed journals, including 4 in Nature Climate Change and 2 in PNAS. He is convener of several major sessions on large scale flood and natural hazard risk, including those at the European Geosciences Union, the American Geophysical Union, and the World Bank GFDRR’s Understanding Risk forum.

In 2011, Philip was awarded a VENI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) to conduct research on El Niño Southern Oscillation’s influence on flood risk worldwide. Through this project, he developed the state-of-the-art global flood risk assessment model GLOFRIS, which is used by a large range of stakeholders and decision makers, including the World Bank, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, OECD, UN-HABITAT, and several reinsurance companies. He also developed the online web-tool Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer with the World Resources Institute and Deltares. Currently, he leads work packages or tasks in several EU-funded international research projects: IMPREX, eartH2Observe, and RISES-AM. He has been awarded grants/projects from agencies including NWO, European Commission, World Bank, FAO, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, KNAW, Knowledge for Climate, Climate changes Spatial Planning, and Deltares.

Dr. Ward coordinates, or teaches in, courses at Masters and Bachelors level on: Integrated Modelling in Hydrology; Tools in Environmental Resource Management; Risk Assessment; Water Policy; and Thesis Writing. He is currently adviser to 7 PhD students.

Expertise

Flood risk, water resources management, drought risk, hydrology, global modelling, storm surge modelling, GIS, climate change impacts; climate variability impacts, climate-water interaction.

Academic training

2005-2008Ph.D. Simulating discharge and sediment yield characteristics in the Meuse basin during the late Holocene and 21st Century (defence: 23 January 2009).
2004-2005M.Sc. Environment and Resource Management (cum laude). VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
1996-1999B.Sc. Geography (First Class Honours). The University of Manchester, U.K.

Professional employment history

2008-presentResearcher, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
2005-2008Junior Researcher, Institute of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
2002-2004Environmental Consultant, Geofox-Lexmond Milieuadviseurs, Bodegraven, The Netherlands.
1999-2002Survey Manager, Babtie Group Technical and Management Consultants, Wakefield, U.K.
1994-1999Research Assistant, Babtie Group Technical and Management Consultants, Wakefield, U.K.

Awards

2011NWO VENI grant laureate
2011Winner of best article award 2010 in Environmental Research Letters (ERL)
1999P.R. Crowe Prize for Geography, University of Manchester, U.K.
1999Nominated for Biogeography Research Award, University of Reading, U.K.
1998Zochonis Special Enterprise Award, University of Manchester, U.K.

Selected publications

Link to full publication list at IVM since 2006

Peer-reviewed scientific papers

Ward, P.J., Jongman, B., Salamon, P., Simpson, A., Bates, P., De Groeve, T., Muis, S., Coughlan de Perez, E., Rudari, R., Trigg, M.A. & Winsemius, H.C. (2015). Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models. Nature Climate Change, 5, 712-715. doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

Jongman, B., Winsemius, H.C., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Van Aalst, M.K., Kron, W. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, E2271-E2280. doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data. Science of the Total Environment, 538, 445-457. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068.

Veldkamp, T.I.E., Wada, Y., De Moel, H., Kummu, M., Eisner, S., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability. Global Environmental Change, 32, 18-29. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.011.

Veldkamp, T.I.E., Eisner, S,. Wada, Y., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO driven climate variability at the global scale. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 5465-5517. doi:10.5194/hessd-12-5465-2015.

de Moel, H., Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Penning-Rowsell, E. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20, 865-890. doi:10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z.

Ward, P.J., Jongman, B., Kummu, M., Dettinger, M.D., Sperna Weiland, F.C. & Winsemius, H.C. (2014). Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 10.1073/pnas.1409822111

Devineni, N., Lall, U., Xi, C. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Scaling of extreme rainfall areas at a planetary scale. Chaos, 25, 07540. doi:10.1063/1.4921719.

Budiyono, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Brinkman, J., Marfai, M.A. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta. Natural Hazards, 75, 389-413. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1327-9.

Marfai, M.A., Sekaranom, A.B. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Community responses and adaptation strategies toward flood hazard in Jakarta, Indonesia. Natural Hazards, 75(2), 1127-1144, doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1365-3.

Jeuken, A., Haasnoot, M., Reeder, T. & Ward, P.J. (2015). Lessons learnt from adaptation planning in four deltas and coastal cities. Journal of Water and Climate Change, in press, doi:10.2166/wcc.2014.141.

Lee, D., Ward, P.J. & Block, P. (2015). A global approach to defining flood seasons. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 4595-4630, doi:10.5194/hessd-12-4595-2015.

Budiyono, Y., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Tollenaar, D. & Ward, P.J. (2015). River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4435-4478, doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-4435-2015.

Ward, P.J., Jongman, B., Kummu, M., Dettinger, M.D., Sperna Weiland, F.C. & Winsemius, H.C. (2014). Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 15659-15664. doi:10.1073/pnas.1409822111.

Ward, P.J., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Dettinger, M.D. & Kummu, M. (2014). Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño Southern Oscillation at the global scale. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 47-66. doi:10.5194/hess-18-47-2014.

Ward, P.J., van Pelt, S.C., de Keizer, O., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Beersma, J.J., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. & te Linde, A.H. (2014). Including climate change projections in probabilistic flood risk assessment. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 7.doi:141-151. 10.1111/jfr3.12029.

Brown, S., Nicholls, R.J., Hanson, S., Brundrit, G., Dearing, J.A., Dickson, M.E, Gallop, S.L., Gao, S., Haigh, I.D., Hinkel, J., Jiménez, J.A., Klein, R.J.T., Kron, W., Lázár, A.N., Freitas Neves, C.F., Newton, A., Pattiaratachi, C., Payo, A., Pye, K., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Siddall, M., Shareef, A., Tompkins, E.L., Vafeidis, A.T., van Maanen, B., Ward, P.J. & Woodroffe, C.D. (2014). Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4, 752-755. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2344.

Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Mechler, R., Botzen, W.J.W., Bouwer, L.M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R. & Ward, P.J. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change, 4, 264-268. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2124.

Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Mechler, R., Botzen, W.J.W., Bouwer, L.M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R. & Ward, P.J. (2014). Reply to ‘Statistics of flood risk’. Nature Climate Change, 4, 844-845. doi:10.1038/nclimate2376.

Jongman, B., Koks, E.E., Husby, T.G. & Ward, P.J. (2014). Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(5), 1245-1255. doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014.

Merz, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Baldi, M., Becker, A., Bichet, A., Blöschl, G., Bouwer, L.M., Brauer, A., Cioffi, F., Delgado, J.M., Gocht, M., Guzetti, F., Harrigan, S., Hirschboeck, K., Kilsby, C., Kron, W., Kwon, H. -H., Lall, U., Merz, R., Nissen, K., Salvatti, P., Swierczynski, T., Ulbrich, U., Viglione, A., Ward, P.J., Weiler, M., Wilhelm, B. & Nied, M. (2014). Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1921-1942. doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014.

Poerbandono, Julian, M.M. & Ward, P.J. (2014). Assessment of the effects of climate and land cover changes on river discharge and sediment yield, and adaptive spatial planning in the Jakarta region. Natural Hazards, 73, 507-530. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1083-x.

Ward, P.J., Pauw, W.P., van Buuren, M.W., Marfai, M.A. (2013). Governance of flood risk management in a time of climate change: the cases of Jakarta and Rotterdam. EnvironmentalPolitics, 22(3), 518-536. doi:10.1080/09644016.2012.683155.

Winsemius, H.C., van Beek, R., Jongman, B., Ward, P.J. & Bouwman, A. (2013). A framework for global river flood risk assessments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1871-1892. doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013.

Räsänen, T.A., Lehr, C., Mellin, I., Ward, P.J. & Kummu M. (2013). Paleoclimatological perspective on river basin hydrometeorology: case of the Mekong Basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2069-2081. doi:10.5194/hess-17-2069-2013.

Jongman, B., Ward, P.J. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2012). Global exposure to river and coastal flooding – long term trends and changes. Global Environmental Change, 22, 823-835. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004.

Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Barredo, J.I., Bates, P.D., Feyen, L., Gericke, A., Neal, J., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Ward, P.J. (2012). Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 3733-3752. doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012.

Poussin, J.K., Bubeck, P., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Ward, P.J. (2012). Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 3455-3471. doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3455-2012.

Kummu, M., de Moel, H., Porkka, M., Siebert, S., Varis, O. & Ward, P.J. (2012). Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertilizer use. Science of the Total Environment, 438, 477-489. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.08.092.

Lauri, H., de Moel, H., Ward, P.J., Räsänen, T.A., Keskinen, M., & Kummu, M. (2012). Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4603-4619. doi:10.5194/hess-16-4603-2012.

Lehr, C., Ward, P.J. & Kummu, M. (2012). Impact of large-scale climatic oscillations on snowfall-related climate parameters in the world's major downhill ski areas: a review. Mountain Research and Development, 32(4), 431-445. doi:10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-12-00062.1.

Ward, P.J., de Moel, H. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011). How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 3181-3195. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3181-2011.

Ward, P.J., Renssen, H., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Verburg, P.H. (2011). Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to 21st Century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe). Climatic Change, 106(2), 179-202. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9926-2.

Ward, P.J., Marfai, M.A., Yulianto, F., Hizbaron, D.R. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011). Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta. Natural Hazards, 56(3), 899-916, doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9599-1.

Kummu, M., de Moel, H., Ward, P.J. & Varis, O. (2011). How close do we live to water? A global analysis of population distance to freshwater bodies. PloS ONE, 6(6), e20578. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020578.

Notebaert, B., Verstraeten, G., Ward, P.J., Renssen, H. & van Rompaey, A. (2011). Modeling the sensitivity of sediment and water runoff dynamics to Holocene climate and land use changes at the catchment scale. Geomorphology, 126, 18-31. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.08.016.

Ward, P.J., Beets, W., Bouwer, L.M., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Renssen, H. (2010). Sensitivity of river discharge to ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L12402. doi:10.1029/2010GL043215.

Ward, P.J., Strzepek, K.M., Pauw, W.P., Brander, L.M., Hughes, G.A. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2010). Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application. Environmental Research Letters, 5, 044011. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044011.

Kummu, M., Ward, P.J., de Moel, H. & Varis, O. (2010). Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia. Environmental Research Letters, 5, 034006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034006.

Ward, P.J., van Balen, R.T., Verstraeten, G., Renssen, H. & Vandenberghe, J. (2009). The impact of land use and climate change on late Holocene and future suspended sediment yield of the Meuse catchment. Geomorphology, 103, 389-400. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.07.006.

Poerbandono, Ward, P.J. & Julian, M.M. (2009). Set up and calibration of a spatial tool for simulating latest decades’ flow discharges of the western Java: Preliminary Results and Assessments. ITB Journal of Engineering Science, 41B(1), 50-64. http://proceedings.itb.ac.id/index.php?li=article_detail&id=331.

Ward, P.J., Renssen, H., Aerts, J.C.J.H., van Balen, R.T. & Vandenberghe, J. (2008). Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12, 159-175. doi:10.5194/hess-12-159-2008.

Ward, P.J. (2008). River Meuse suspended sediment yield: a new estimate and past estimates revisited. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 87(2), 189-193. http://www.njgonline.nl/publish/articles/000389/english.html.

Ward, P.J. (2008). Correspondence. River Meuse suspended sediment yield: a new estimate and past estimates revisited. A reply to Prof. A. Pissart. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 87(4), 365-366. http://www.njgonline.nl/cgi-bin/pw.cgi/articles/000406/article.pdf

Ward, P.J., Aerts, J.C.J.H., de Moel, H. & Renssen, H. (2007). Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against Holocene palaeohydrological records. Global and Planetary Change, 57, 283-300. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.12.002.

Renssen, H., Lougheed, B.C., Aerts. J.C.J.H., de Moel, H., Ward, P.J. & Kwadijk, J.C.J. (2007). Simulating long-term Caspian Sea level changes: the impact of Holocene and future climate conditions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 261, 685-693. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.07.037.

Aerts, J.C.J.H., Renssen, H., Ward, P.J., de Moel, H., Odada, E., Bouwer, L.M. & Goosse, H. (2006). Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L19401. doi:10.1029/2006GL027493.

Selected other publications

World Bank (including Ward, P.J.) (2014). Understanding Risk in an Evolving World - A Policy Note. World Bank GFDRR, Washington DC, USA, 15pp.   

Ward, P.J., Jongman, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Bouwman, A., van Beek, R., Bierkens, M.F.P., Ligtvoet, W. & Winsemius, H.C. (2014). Global river flood risk assessments. In World Bank (eds.), Understanding Risk. The evolution of disaster risk assessment. World Bank GFDRR, Washington DC, USA, 220pp.

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (including Ward, P.J.) (2014). Towards a world of cities in 2050. An outlook on water-related challenges. Background report to the UN-Habitat Global Report. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, 72pp.

Ward, P.J., Aerts, J.C.J.H., de Keizer, O. & Poussin, J.K. (2013). Adaptation to Meuse flood risk. Knowledge for Climate report nr: KfC 93/2013, Knowledge for Climate, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 70 pp.

van Pelt, S.C., Ward, P.J., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Beersma, J.J. (2012). Nieuwe probabilistische methode om overstromingsrisico’s te schatten. H2O, 21, 44-46.

Ward, P.J., Aerts, J.C.J.H., van Pelt, S.C., de Keizer, O., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Beersma, J.J. & Buishand, T.A. (2012). Attention to Safety 2. Synthesis report KvR 051/12. Climate changes Spatial Planning, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.

Sinaba, B., Huber, N., Fournier, M., Bauwens, A., Buiteveld, H., Brede, R., Deckers, P., Degré, A., de Keizer, O., Detrembleur, S., Dewals, B., Guilmin, E., Hissel, F., Kufeld, M., Marmisse, C., Pirotton, M., Pontegnie, D., Schüttrumpf, H., Vanneuville, W. & Ward, P.J. (2012). Quantification of the impacts of future floods on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin. AMICE WP1 summary report – Action 7. EPAMA, Charleville-Mézières, France.

Ward, P.J., Marfai, M.A., Poerbandono & Aldrian, E. (2011). Climate adaptation in the City of Jakarta. In Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M., Ward, P.J. & Dircke, P. (eds), Climate adaptation and flood risk in coastal cities (pp. 285-304). Oxford, UK: Earthscan.

Poussin, J., Ward, P.J., Bubeck, P., Gaslikova, L., Schwerzmann, A. & Raible, C.C. (2011). Flood risk modelling. In Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M., Ward, P.J. & Dircke, P. (eds), Climate adaptation and flood risk in coastal cities (pp. 93-122). Oxford, UK: Earthscan.

Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M.J., Ward, P.J. & Dircke, P. (2011). Introduction: coastal cities and adaptation to climate change. In Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M., Ward, P.J. & Dircke, P. (eds), Climate adaptation and flood risk in coastal cities (pp. 1-8). Oxford, UK: Earthscan.

Ward, P.J., de Moel, H. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011). Rapid damage modelling for probabilistic risk assessment. Example from the Meuse in Dutch Limburg. IVM Report (W-11/08). Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 43 pp.

Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M., Ward, P.J. & Dircke, P. (2011). Climate adaptation and flood risk in coastal cities. Oxford, UK: Earthscan, 330 pp.

World Bank (including Ward, P.J.) (2010). The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting To Climate Change. New Methods and Estimates. The Global Report On the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study. The World Bank, Washington D.C., 84pp., http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTCC/Resources/EACC-june2010.pdf.

Ward, P.J., Strzepek, K.M., Pauw, W.P., Brander, L.M. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2010). Costs of adaptation related to industrial and municipal water supply and riverine flood protection. World Bank Development and Climate Change Discussion Paper Number 6. The World Bank, Washington D.C., 101pp. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTCC/Resources/407863-1229101582229/DCCDP_6Riverine.pdf.

Veldkamp, T.I.E & Ward, P.J. (2010). Onderzoek naar adaptatiemogelijkheden voor verminderen risico’s op overstromingen. H2O, 17, 4-5.

Ward, P.J., Marfai, M.A., Tobing, A. & Elings, C. (2010). Jakarta flood risk. In Dircke. P., Aerts, J.C.J.H. & Molenaar, A. (eds), Connecting Delta Cities II. Sharing knowledge and working on adaptation to climate change. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: VU University Press, 159pp.

Ward, P.J. (2009). Simulating discharge and sediment yield characteristics in the Meuse basin during the late Holocene and 21st Century. PhD thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 173 pp.

Aerts, J.C.J.H., Major, D.C., Bowman, M.J., Dircke, P., Marfai, M.A., Abidin, H.Z., Ward, P.J., Botzen, W., Bannink, B.A., Nickson, A. & Reeder, T. (2009). Connecting Delta Cities. Coastal Adaptation, Flood Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: VU University Press, 91pp.

World Bank (including Ward, P.J.) (2008). The economics of adaptation to climate change. Methodology Report. November 2008. World Bank, Washington D.C., 18 pp.

Ward, P.J. (2008). Zicht op Maasafvoer door de eeuwen heen. Land & Water, 8, 30-31.

Brouwer, S., Ward, P.J. & Huitema, D. (2005). De Kaderrichtlijn Water en de Waddenzee. H20, 12, 14-15.

  

 

Ancillary activities

Deltares - Unknown Delft, 01 juni 2012
Last changes Ancillary activities: Amsterdam 27 januari 2017